Used Merchandise Stores NAICS 459510

May 12, 2025 - Slower Growth Forecast

• Sales for the US used merchandise stores industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.17% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and the government. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to the Wall Street Journal, many used merchandise stores are reporting higher traffic and a wider customer base at the start of 2025, as consumers increasingly shift to cheaper shopping options amid economic uncertainty. Reseller supplier Thrift Vintage Fashion in Miami, for example, said sales were up 31% in March 2025 and 23% in April 2025 compared to the same periods a year ago, which the company attributed to the tariff scare. In addition, resale platform ThredUp had a 95% increase in new sign-ups from January to March 2025. Accenture consultant Oliver Wright noted in the article that any stigma associated with secondhand shopping is going away, and that online searches for thrift stores and similar keywords have recently surged. Some used merchandise stores have not yet seen a notable gain in 2025. Buffalo Exchange, a chain of 41 locations, said its 2025 sales have been about on par with those in 2024, potentially due to consumers cutting back on nonessential spending.

• According to a report in CFO Dive, consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, fell in large part due to tariff uncertainty and an expectation of higher prices. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”
• According to a report in Glossy, used merchandise stores may benefit from the cautious consumer environment created by the tariff rollouts by the Trump Administration. ThredUp’s 2025 Resale Report surveyed customers and retailers about their views on tariffs. About 60% of consumers expect tariffs to make apparel more expensive and plan to seek more affordable options like secondhand. About 80% of retailers expect disruption from tariffs, while 54% said they see resale as a “more stable source of clothing in the face of potential tariff fluctuation.” Resale shops are also expected to benefit from proposed legislation favoring circularity. According to ThredUp CEO James Reinhart, “The evolving landscape of tariffs and import regulations presents a fascinating dynamic for both the resale and broader apparel industries. While these changes introduce potential challenges, particularly for brands reliant on rapid, low-cost imports, they also create significant opportunities for resale platforms.”