Wood Window and Door Manufacturers NAICS 321911

Sep 23, 2025 - Sawmills Trim Production Amid Drop in Lumber Futures

• Wood window and door manufacturers may experience margin relief as log and lumber prices drop. Lumber futures have plunged since early August, signaling economic caution amid trade uncertainty and a weakening housing market, according to The Wall Street Journal. Spot prices saw a similar drop over the same period. A glut of wood - stockpiled in anticipation of higher tariffs on Canadian imports - has collided with softening demand, prompting major producers like Interfor and Domtar to curtail output. While high lumber prices during the pandemic stemmed from inflation and supply chain strain, current declines result from reduced construction activity and tariff volatility. While an oversupply of lumber could reduce input costs for wood window and door manufacturers, it also signals weaker demand.
• Mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 1% in August 2025 compared to the same month a year earlier, but were down 6% from July 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The MBA’s seasonally adjusted estimate for new home sales in August was up 6% from July’s pace of 685,000 units. August marked the third consecutive rise in estimated new home sales. According to MBA Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan, housing inventory is rising, giving potential buyers more options while reducing upward pressure on housing prices. New home sales are a demand driver for manufacturers of wood windows and doors.

• A budget reconciliation law signed by President Trump in July includes provisions that will prompt an early sunset of tax credits for several types of residential energy efficiency improvements. The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentivized homeowners to make energy efficiency upgrades, including higher-efficiency windows, doors, and skylights. The tax credits and rebates were set to be in place for 10 years, but the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025 ends the tax credits at the end of this year. The IRA also made permanent 179D tax deductions for energy efficiency upgrades for commercial buildings. The new law eliminates 179D tax deductions effective June 30, 2026.
• Home remodeling spending growth is expected to remain flat in 2025 and the first half of 2026, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. Homeowner improvements and repairs are expected to increase 2% to $509 billion in the third quarter of 2025 compared to Q3 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, remodeling spending will rise quarter-over-quarter to $511 billion, up 1.8% from Q4 2024. Spending will increase to $524 billion in Q1 2026, up 2.2% from Q1 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year spending is forecast to rise 1.2% to $518 billion. Joint Center expects a weak housing market to put downward pressure on remodeling spending. However, recent federal cuts to incentives for efficiency improvements may spur short-term growth as homeowners make upgrades before benefits expire at the end of the year.