Farm Support Services NAICS 1151, 1152

May 30, 2026 - 2026 Acreage Outlook

• The USDA’s closely-watched Prospective Plantings report, released in late March, reveals farmers’ intentions for planted acreage for principal crops in 2026. Among the report’s key takeaways is an expectation for corn acreage to decline from 2025 highs, with farmers intending to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down 3% from last year’s elevated levels, reflecting tighter margins and higher fertilizer costs. Soybean acreage is expected to expand modestly, with soybean plantings reaching 84.7 million acres, up 4% year over year, supported by lower nitrogen requirements, strong domestic crush demand, and crop rotation following large corn acreage in 2025. Wheat plantings decline to a record low 43.8 million acres, while cotton increases modestly. Market uncertainty could still shift final acreage decisions. Volatility in fertilizer markets due to the Iran war, evolving export demand, particularly from China, and spring weather conditions may influence how acres are ultimately allocated.
• A new federal rule changes how the Labor Department sets Adverse Effect Wage Rates (AEWR), the wage floor intended to keep foreign guest workers from undercutting US farmworker wages, for H-2A guest workers, shifting from USDA's Farm Labor Survey to a Bureau of Labor Statistics survey and creating separate wage tiers for entry-level and experienced workers. A Giannini Foundation analysis estimates California H-2A wage costs could drop 15%, saving employers over $100 million this year. California's 2026 Skill Level I AEWR is estimated at $16.45, just below the state's $16.90 minimum wage, which would serve as the effective wage floor. Farmworker advocates warn the rule will suppress wages for both H-2A and domestic workers. The United Farm Workers and UFW Foundation have filed a federal lawsuit to block the rule. Researchers caution that lower wages could hurt worker retention, morale, and productivity, while potentially pushing more growers to outsource seasonal work to farm labor contractors.

• The Trump administration is easing restrictions on the H-2A visa program to address worsening farm labor shortages caused in part by stricter immigration enforcement, The New York Times reports. By lowering wage requirements and allowing housing to count toward compensation, the changes make it cheaper for farmers to hire temporary foreign workers. Farmers largely support the move, citing a lack of available US workers and rising production challenges. However, critics, including the United Farm Workers of America and immigration advocates, argue it will suppress wages, discourage and displace domestic workers, and increase reliance on vulnerable foreign labor. Economists suggest lowering wages will not attract more American workers and may instead accelerate automation, reliance on guest workers, and increased imports. Overall, the policy highlights a tension between immigration restrictions and agricultural labor needs, with farms becoming increasingly dependent on foreign workers to remain viable.
• Farmers face growing economic and generational challenges as rising costs, weak commodity prices, and trade pressures strain farm profitability and make succession harder, The Wall Street Journal reports. Farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025, reflecting financial stress across the sector. At the same time, the farming population is aging, with more farmers over 75 than under 35. Many farmers’ children pursue careers outside agriculture. As a result, thousands of multigenerational farms are being sold to larger entities or forced into bankruptcy, accelerating consolidation in the industry. This shift is reshaping food production, potentially reducing crop diversity and affecting rural communities that historically depended on family farms. Government aid has helped some farmers stay afloat, but financial pressures remain. Without younger generations taking over, many farmers face uncertain futures for their land and businesses, raising concerns about the long-term viability of family farming in the US.