Gift and Souvenir Stores NAICS 459420

May 7, 2026 - Gift Retailers Eye Holiday Boost

• Record Mother’s Day spending expectations could provide a strong seasonal boost for the US gift and souvenir stores industry, according to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The NRF projects Mother’s Day spending will reach a record $38 billion in 2026, with consumers planning to spend an average of $284.25 per person. The report highlights strong demand for unique and memorable gifts, which may benefit gift and souvenir retailers that specialize in personalized, novelty, and experience-oriented merchandise. Popular categories such as greeting cards, flowers, and gift items remain widely purchased, while nearly half of shoppers say finding something unique is their top priority. Online retailers and department stores are tied as the leading shopping destinations, followed by specialty stores and discount stores, signaling potential traffic and sales opportunities for gift retailers despite broader economic uncertainty.
• April 2026 consumer surveys from the Conference Board and University of Michigan point to a cautious spending environment that could pressure the US gift and souvenir stores industry. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 92.8, indicating some stability in views on jobs and income. However, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index remained weak at 49.8 as inflation and financial concerns weighed on consumers. For gift and souvenir retailers, softer sentiment and increased price sensitivity could reduce discretionary purchases, particularly for nonessential and impulse items. Consumers may become more selective with spending on gifts, travel-related souvenirs, and novelty products, increasing pressure on retailers to emphasize value, promotions, and lower-priced merchandise.

• For US gift and souvenir retailers, the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling offered only brief relief before a new 10% global tariff restored cost pressure, according to a report in Chain Store Age. The report noted US importers had already absorbed an estimated $175 billion in extra taxes under prior tariffs, while imported core goods prices rose 1.0% and durable goods prices rose 1.3% from January to November 2025. Because gift retailers are highly price sensitive and often operate on thin margins, much of the tariff burden was ultimately passed on to shoppers: tariff pass-through reached 31%–63% for core goods and 42%–96% for durables. Consumer response is a growing risk, with nearly 8 in 10 consumers saying tariff-driven price increases changed their behavior. For gift and souvenir retailers, that raises the importance of targeted pricing, disciplined sourcing, and value-focused assortments as trade uncertainty continues through 2026.
• Sales for the US gift and souvenir stores industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.07% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report projects sluggish but positive economic growth in the coming years. Factors that continue to limit consumer spending are lower consumer sentiment levels, higher interest levels, and elevated price levels. Real disposable income is being limited by a slow rise of employment and higher consumption prices, with a projected increase of real disposable income of 1.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The report noted that some shifts in consumer behavior persisted in 2025, including increased online shopping.