US Transportation and Warehousing Sector NAICS 48

Sep 4, 2025 - Instructor Shortage Hampers FAA New Controller Training

• The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) push to hire thousands of new air traffic controllers amid a shortage has proved fruitful in terms of promising candidates, but the agency is having trouble finding enough qualified instructors to train them. After launching a hiring blitz in mid-March, the FAA has referred 8,300 candidates for testing, while increasing the agency’s training academy roster in Oklahoma City by 30% to 550 students as of July. However, the agency’s goal of hiring 8,900 new controllers by 2028 is slow going because instructors must be previous certified controllers themselves with on-the-job airport experience. Instructors have historically worked days that can last up to twelve hours with low pay, a tough sell for many qualified instructors. It takes four years to be certified as a controller, and a recent FAA workforce plan revealed the current pace will only yield 1,000 instructors by the deadline.
• Tumbling ocean shipping rates from China to the US indicate the peak shipping season of 2025 was shorter than usual and retailers and manufacturers are wary of placing new orders because of tariffs. The rate slide in July of 68% from the previous month comes just before the fall and winter shopping season, one of the busiest shipping times of the year. The tariff situation is making it difficult for shipping companies to properly plan ahead, with importers either reducing current inventory or leaning heavily on the stockpiled goods they bought when the tariffs were announced in April. The average shipping rate from China to the West Coast in early September was $1,802, down from the year’s high of $5,553 in June. The forecast for the rest of the year from the National Retail Federation predicts monthly year-over-year declines of anywhere from 19% to 21%.

• Import cargo volume to US ports should end the year down 5.6% compared to 2024, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and trade consultancy Hackett Associates. US ports in June 2025 processed about 1.96 million twenty foot equivalent units (TFEU, a measuring standard in shipping equal to the volume of a 20-foot container), an 8.4% year-over-year decrease. The NRF report attributes the glum forecast in the back half of the year to inventory stockpiling early in 2025 in anticipation of tariffs, as well as port worker labor disputes in late 2024 that also had buyers thinking ahead and stocking up on goods. The pulling forward of cargo drove a 2025 year to date TFEU increase of 3.6%, which NRF expects to decline rapidly as companies buy less goods due to soaring tariffs and rely on those stockpiles instead.
• There is more vacant warehouse space across the US than at any point in the last 11 years as companies respond to tariffs by delaying leasing space. According to real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield, vacancy rates climbed to 7.1% in Q2, up from 6.9% in Q1 and 6.1% year over year. Vacancy rates haven’t climbed higher than 7% since 2014. Warehouse leasing by retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers is based on long-term planning, and the yo-yoing tariff situation runs counter to that strategy. Businesses stockpiled inventory before the tariffs were announced and then paused overseas orders and leasing decisions afterwards. Tariff headaches come at a time of weak demand for warehousing after a building boom during and after the pandemic oversaturated the market and drove vacancy rates down to 3%. Developers have since pulled back on warehouse construction, with newly built space available down 49% from last year.